Sheikh Mansour has poured more than one billion pounds since acquiring Manchester City in 2008. The Citizens have become the dominant force in Britain and have consistently colored the top flight of the Premier League. Since 2008, City have won four Premier League titles, more than any other team in the 2010s. They also posted a record 100 points in 2017/18. Apart from the domestic league, City also brought in two FA Cups, five League Cups and three Community Shields.
However, the achievements in the domestic arena do not run parallel to the fate of City in Europe. Until now, Sheikh Mansour’s massive support has not paid off with the Champions League title. One of the most successful coaches in football history, Pep Guardiola was not even able to present this prestigious title in four seasons. The Citizens’ progress in the Champions League was still stuck in the semifinals.
Pep stuck in the quarter-finals during his time at City. He has not been able to match the achievements of the coach he replaced, Manuel Pellegrini. After appearing convincingly in the early phases of the Champions League and getting into the conversation of winning candidates, Pep’s men always tumble.
This season, despite their failures in previous seasons, The Citizens are again the favorites to win. William Hill gambling house market from the beginning favored City, with Bayern Munich, to win the Champions League. FiveThirtyEight, a media with a focus on statistical analysis, even favors Man City more than Bayern.
As of February 22, during the first leg of the Round of 16 phase, City’s probability of winning the Champions League is up to 41% in the FiveThirtyEight prediction. This figure surpasses Bayern who are second favorite with a probability of 12%. The third favorite is Liverpool with a 10% chance. Meanwhile, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Chelsea have a 5% chance of trailing under him.
FiveThirtyEight bases its predictions on ESPN’s modified Soccer Power Index (SPI) rating system. The season’s predictions are concluded based on the previous season’s performance database combined with the market value of a squad. In short, performance ratings are based on statistics for goals, expected goals, and the collection of actions that threaten the opponent’s goal per match.
If you look at the method above, the status of favorites to win Manchester City is not surprising. This team has been consistent in the last four seasons. Despite having to give up the league title in 2019/20, Kevin De Bruyne and colleagues are still runners-up and are performing quite well compared to other teams.
In addition, City always qualify for the Champions League group phase with relative ease. In the last four seasons, they won the group with a score of 13-16 points in that period. The Citizens also performed amazingly in Group C this season. Guardiola’s men secured 16 points against Porto, Olympiakos and Marseille and have conceded just one goal in six games. Ahead of the Round of 16, City’s goal was not conceded for a total of 526 minutes.
City’s impressive trend led them to the top of the Premier League standings by 10 points from their closest competitors, Manchester United. Guardiola’s men have registered 18 consecutive wins in all competitions which is a club record. The Citizens are also unbeaten in the last 25 matches in all competitions.
Even though he had stumbled at the start of the season, City returned to his natural state. Among other English clubs, Raheem Sterling and his friends have been the most consistent in the last four seasons. The statistical fluctuation of their attack and defense results did not differ much during that period. City’s expected goals (xG) and goals per game are always in the top 2, except for this season which recorded 1.95 XG and 2.0 goals per game. However, this decline was offset by improved defensive statistics. City recorded 0.72 expected goals against (xGA) and conceded just 0.52 goals per game – the lowest in four seasons – in 2020/21.
Reviewing the statistics above, City looks very consistent. However, reflecting on past experience, Guardiola’s men have always been eliminated disappointingly in the Champions League. Easy progress from the group stage, but being eliminated by an underdog team in the knockout stages is synonymous with Man City.
In 2016/17, Guardiola’s first season, City were defeated by AS Monaco in the last 16. After that City stuck in the quarter-finals, successively eliminated by Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, and finally Olympique Lyon. If you leave statistics and look at the experience of the last four seasons, UCL City’s work creates pessimism. So, can Guardiola break the bad luck of The Citizens in Europe this season? The coach certainly missed the trophy he last won in 2010/11.
Guardiola himself has a decent squad to challenge anyone. In 2020/21, City found a harmony that made them even stronger, especially in the defense sector. This cannot be separated from the arrival of Ruben Dias, as well as John Stones who returned to his best level. Joao Cancelo, who is good at playing in several positions, also gives a new dimension to City’s game. Whether as a left-back, right-hand, or midfielder, the Portuguese national is effective in both defending and supporting attacks.
A series of matches without defeat and successive wins shows the complete development of Guardiola’s squad. Maybe this season is Pep’s best chance to take Big Ear to Etihad. However, first of all, City must eliminate Borussia Moenchengladbach in the Round of 16. Marco Rose’s foster children are not easy opponents. Gladbach managed to escape from the “hell group” which contained Real Madrid, Inter Milan and Shakhtar Donetsk. Lars Stindl and friends qualify as runners-up after winning 10-0 head-to-head over Shakhtar. This team has made a lot of surprises in the group phase. And for City, elimination by dark horses always haunts him.
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