Mancheter City and Bayern Munich are the two strongest contenders to win the UEFA Champions League title in the 2022-2023 season.
However, statistics site FiveThirtyEight predicted City is the number one contender in the Champions League with a 26% chance of winning the final in Istanbul on June 2023.
After a 0-0 draw with Copenhagen on October 11, the English Premier League club became the first to advance from the group stage.
City have reached in the quarter-finals of the Champions League six times in the past 10 years, but they never won the title.
Bayern is in second place with a 25% chance of winning. Despite being in Group C of death with Barcelona, Inter Milan, and Viktoria Plzen. The German club is the only one to have won the maximum 18 points in the Champions League group stage this season.
Julian Nagelsmann’s side also extended the longest unbeaten record in the history of the Champions League group stage to 34 matches and scored in the last 22 home matches in the Champions League so far.
Real Madrid meanwhile has a 7% chance of retaining the title, the same as Liverpool and less than PSG (11%). Napoli (5%), Chelsea (4%), Porto, Inter (3%) and Benfica (2%) complete the top ten.
FiveThirtyEight provides a prediction formula that takes into account each match’s winning percentage in major leagues and European league matches.
The supercomputer ran 20,000 simulations for each championship to calculate the chances of winning or losing and the likelihood that each team would win. The variables were collected using data from several vendors, including Opta and Transfermarkt.
FiveThirtyEight is a statistics website best known for correct way predicting the US Presidential election. They also established a club hierarchy based on match performance. Based on this table and past European championship results.
